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RCIN and OZwRCIN projects

Object

Title: A probability distribution for crop yields in Poland

Creator:

Górski, Tadeusz

Date issued/created:

2009

Resource type:

Tekst

Subtitle:

Geographia Polonica Vol. 82 No. 1 (2009)

Publisher:

IGiPZ PAN

Place of publishing:

Warszawa

Description:

24 cm

Type of object:

Czasopismo/Artykuł

Abstract:

An important source of risk in agricultural production is the variability to crop yields reflecting irregularly changing weather. This variability may be described as a stochastic process that has a function of density. Analyses of historical data on crop yields reveal that the function of density changed from right-skewed to left-skewed, along with increasing mean yields. All examined yields of crops cultivated recently in Poland demonstrate the left skew, which does not diminish with the aggregation of acreage. A fairly good approximation of the probability distribution for actual yields may be obtained using the log-normal distribution with an inverted abscissa.

References:

1. Aitchison, J., Brown, J.A.C. (1957), The lognormal distribution, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
2. Atwood, J., Shaik, S., Watts, M. (2003), Are crop yields normally distributed? A reexamination, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 85: 888-901.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-8276.00495 -
3. Austin, R.B., Arnold, M.H. (1989), Variability of wheat yields in England: analysis and future prospects, in Anderson, J.R., Hazel, P.B.R. (eds.), Variability in grain yields, Baltimore, London.
4. Day, R.H. (1965), Probability distribution of field crop yields, Journal of Farm Economics, 47: 713-741.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1236284 -
5. Gallagher, P. (1986), U.S. corn yield capacity and probability: estimation and forecasting with nonsymmetric disturbances, North Central Journal of Agricultural Economics, 8: 109-122.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1349086 -
6. Górski, T., Demidowicz, G., Deputat T., Górska, K., Marcinkowska, I., Spoz-Pać, W., Krakowiak, A. (1994), Agrometeorological quantification of agricultural year in Poland, Zeszyty Problemowe Postępów Nauk Rolniczych, 405: 81-87.
7. Górski, T., Górska, K. (1999), Zmienność klimatyczna plonów pszenicy ozimej w Polsce i wpływ agregacji powierzchni na ocenę ryzyka [Climatic Variability of winter wheat crop yields in Poland, and impact of surface aggregation on risk calculation], Folia Universitatis Agriculturae Stetinensis, Agricultura, 202, (79): 73-80.
8. Górski, T., Górska, K. (2003), The effects of scale on crop yield variability, Agricultural Systems, 78: 425-434.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0308-521X(03)00036-2 -
9. Just, R.E., Weninger, Q. (1999), Are crop yields normally distributed? American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 81: 287-304.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1244582 -
10. Kansas Department of Agriculture (2004), Kansas wheat history, Statistical Division, November 2004.
11. Nelson, C.H. (1990), The influence of distributional assumptions on the calculation of crop insurance premia, North Central Journal of Agricultural Economics, 12: 71-78.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1349359 -
12. Park, W., I., Sinclair, T.R. (1993), Consequences of climate and crop yield limits on the distribution of corn yields, Review of Agricultural Economics, 15: 483-493.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1349483 -
13. Ramirez, O.A., Misra, S., Field J. (2003), Crop-yield distributions revisited, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 85: 108-120.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-8276.00106 -
14. Rychlikowa, I. (1968), Metody statystyki matematycznej w praktyce badawczej historyka [Methods of mathematical statistics in the research practice of historian], Kwartalnik Historii Kultury Materialnej, 16, Instytut Historii Kultury Materialnej, PAN: 317-335.
15. Sherrick, B.J., Zanini, F.C., Schnitkey, G.D., Irwin, S.H. (2004), Crop insurance valuation under alternative yield distributions, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 86: 406-419.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0092-5853.2004.00587.x -
16. Skees, J.R., Black, J.R., Barnett, B.J. (1997), Designing and rating an area field crop insurance contract, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 79: 430-438.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1244141 -
17. Żytkowicz, L. (1970), Plony zbóż w Polsce, Czechach, na Węgrzech i Słowacji w XVIXVIII w [Cereal crops in Poland, Czech, Hungary and Slovakia throughout the 16th and 18th centuries], Kwartalnik Historii Kultury Materialnej, 18, Instytut Historii Kultury Materialnej, PAN: 227-253.

Relation:

Geographia Polonica

Volume:

82

Issue:

1

Start page:

61

End page:

67

Detailed Resource Type:

Artykuł

Format:

Rozmiar pliku 1,4 MB ; application/pdf

Resource Identifier:

oai:rcin.org.pl:55501 ; 0016-7282 ; 10.7163/GPol.2009.1.5

Source:

CBGiOS. IGiPZ PAN, sygn.: Cz.2085, Cz.2173, Cz.2406 ; click here to follow the link

Language:

eng

Rights:

Prawa zastrzeżone - dostęp nieograniczony

Terms of use:

Zasób chroniony prawem autorskim. Korzystanie dozwolone w zakresie określonym przez przepisy o dozwolonym użytku.

Digitizing institution:

Instytut Geografii i Przestrzennego Zagospodarowania Polskiej Akademii Nauk

Original in:

Centralna Biblioteka Geografii i Ochrony Środowiska Instytutu Geografii i Przestrzennego Zagospodarowania PAN

Projects co-financed by:

Unia Europejska. Europejski Fundusz Rozwoju Regionalnego ; Program Operacyjny Innowacyjna Gospodarka, lata 2010-2014, Priorytet 2. Infrastruktura strefy B + R

Access:

Otwarty

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