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RCIN and OZwRCIN projects

Object

Title: A probability distribution for crop yields in Poland

Creator:

Górski, Tadeusz

Date issued/created:

2009

Resource type:

Text

Subtitle:

Geographia Polonica Vol. 82 No. 1 (2009)

Publisher:

IGiPZ PAN

Place of publishing:

Warszawa

Description:

24 cm

Type of object:

Journal/Article

Abstract:

An important source of risk in agricultural production is the variability to crop yields reflecting irregularly changing weather. This variability may be described as a stochastic process that has a function of density. Analyses of historical data on crop yields reveal that the function of density changed from right-skewed to left-skewed, along with increasing mean yields. All examined yields of crops cultivated recently in Poland demonstrate the left skew, which does not diminish with the aggregation of acreage. A fairly good approximation of the probability distribution for actual yields may be obtained using the log-normal distribution with an inverted abscissa.

References:

1. Aitchison, J., Brown, J.A.C. (1957), The lognormal distribution, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-8276.00495 -
3. Austin, R.B., Arnold, M.H. (1989), Variability of wheat yields in England: analysis and future prospects, in Anderson, J.R., Hazel, P.B.R. (eds.), Variability in grain yields, Baltimore, London.
4. Day, R.H. (1965), Probability distribution of field crop yields, Journal of Farm Economics, 47: 713-741.
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5. Gallagher, P. (1986), U.S. corn yield capacity and probability: estimation and forecasting with nonsymmetric disturbances, North Central Journal of Agricultural Economics, 8: 109-122.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1349086 -
6. Górski, T., Demidowicz, G., Deputat T., Górska, K., Marcinkowska, I., Spoz-Pać, W., Krakowiak, A. (1994), Agrometeorological quantification of agricultural year in Poland, Zeszyty Problemowe Postępów Nauk Rolniczych, 405: 81-87.
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8. Górski, T., Górska, K. (2003), The effects of scale on crop yield variability, Agricultural Systems, 78: 425-434.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0308-521X(03)00036-2 -
9. Just, R.E., Weninger, Q. (1999), Are crop yields normally distributed? American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 81: 287-304.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1244582 -
10. Kansas Department of Agriculture (2004), Kansas wheat history, Statistical Division, November 2004.
11. Nelson, C.H. (1990), The influence of distributional assumptions on the calculation of crop insurance premia, North Central Journal of Agricultural Economics, 12: 71-78.
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12. Park, W., I., Sinclair, T.R. (1993), Consequences of climate and crop yield limits on the distribution of corn yields, Review of Agricultural Economics, 15: 483-493.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1349483 -
13. Ramirez, O.A., Misra, S., Field J. (2003), Crop-yield distributions revisited, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 85: 108-120.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-8276.00106 -
14. Rychlikowa, I. (1968), Metody statystyki matematycznej w praktyce badawczej historyka [Methods of mathematical statistics in the research practice of historian], Kwartalnik Historii Kultury Materialnej, 16, Instytut Historii Kultury Materialnej, PAN: 317-335.
15. Sherrick, B.J., Zanini, F.C., Schnitkey, G.D., Irwin, S.H. (2004), Crop insurance valuation under alternative yield distributions, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 86: 406-419.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0092-5853.2004.00587.x -
16. Skees, J.R., Black, J.R., Barnett, B.J. (1997), Designing and rating an area field crop insurance contract, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 79: 430-438.
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17. Żytkowicz, L. (1970), Plony zbóż w Polsce, Czechach, na Węgrzech i Słowacji w XVIXVIII w [Cereal crops in Poland, Czech, Hungary and Slovakia throughout the 16th and 18th centuries], Kwartalnik Historii Kultury Materialnej, 18, Instytut Historii Kultury Materialnej, PAN: 227-253.

Relation:

Geographia Polonica

Volume:

82

Issue:

1

Start page:

61

End page:

67

Detailed Resource Type:

Article

Format:

File size 1,4 MB ; application/pdf

Resource Identifier:

oai:rcin.org.pl:55501 ; 0016-7282 ; 10.7163/GPol.2009.1.5

Source:

CBGiOS. IGiPZ PAN, call nos.: Cz.2085, Cz.2173, Cz.2406 ; click here to follow the link

Language:

eng

Rights:

Rights Reserved - Free Access

Terms of use:

Copyright-protected material. May be used within the limits of statutory user freedoms

Digitizing institution:

Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization of the Polish Academy of Sciences

Original in:

Central Library of Geography and Environmental Protection. Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization PAS

Projects co-financed by:

European Union. European Regional Development Fund ; Programme Innovative Economy, 2010-2014, Priority Axis 2. R&D infrastructure

Access:

Open

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