Depopulation as an opportunity, not a threat to cities and regions: a paradigm change

Janicki, Wojciech

doi:1429-7132

Download

Title: Depopulation as an opportunity, not a threat to cities and regions: a paradigm change

Abstract:

The process of population decline in highly developed countries is commonly perceived as a problem, particularly in some regions of these countries. Population growth is likewise seen as a daunting challenge. This indirectly leads to the conceptually faulty conclusion that the one and only balanced and safe population size is the current one. In reality, negative population growth on both national and regional levels also has its advantages – which do not typically garner much interest or consideration, obscured by the unsubstantiated argument that depopulation is mostly damaging to the well-being of the nation. Regardless of the pros and cons of depopulation, the fact that the process is underway is undisputable. Depopulation is generally accompanied by accelerated rates of aging in a given population. Given the dearth of effective tools to reverse these trends, it is wiser to cease all attempts to reverse the irreversible and instead focus on preparing the organizational structures of states and regions for the economic and social ramifications of depopulation.

References:

1. Abernethy V.D., 2001. Comment on Bermingham's Summary of the U.N.'s Year 2000 Replacement Migration, Is it a Solution to Declining Population and Aging? Population and Environment: A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Human Sciences Press, vol. 22, no. 4, pp. 365–375.
2. Bijak J., Kupiszewska D., Kupiszewski M., Saczuk K., 2005. Impact of international migration on population dynamics and labour force resources in Europe, Central European Forum for Migration Research Working Paper 1/2005.
3. Bouvier L.F., 2001. Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining and Aging Populations? A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Human Sciences Press, vol. 22, no. 4, pp. 377–381.
4. Burke B.M., 1997. Uncoupling growth from prosperity: The U.S. versus Japan, NPG Footnote, August.
5. Burke B.M., 1999. Japan's future is brightened by 'demographic' decline, Seattle Times, Nov. 19, B5.
6. Castles S., 2006., Guestworkers in Europe: A Resurrection? International Migration Review, vol. 40, no. 4, pp. 741–766. Center for Migration Studies of New York.
https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-7379.2006.00042.x -
7. Ehrlich P.R., 1968. The population bomb, Simon & Schuster.
8. Ehrlich P.R., Ehrlich A.H., 1991. The population explosion. Simon & Schuster.
9. Espenshade T., 2001. "Replacement Migration" from the Perspective of Equilibrium Stationary Populations, Population and Environment: A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Human Sciences Press, vol. 22, no. 4, pp. 383–389.
10. European Commission, 2003. Migration and social integration of migrants. Valorisation of research on migration and immigration funded under 4th and 5th European Framework Programmes of Research. Brussels.
11. Golini A., 2000. Demographic trends and population policies, Pergamon, Futures 33 (2001), pp. 27–41.
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0016-3287(00)00051-3 -
12. Golini A., 2005. Population Aging and Labour Market: Two Italian Surveys, XXV International Population Conference, Tours July 18–23, 2005, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population.
13. Grant L., 2001. "Replacement Migration": The UN Population Division on European Population Decline, Population and Environment: A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Human Sciences Press, vol. 22, no. 4, pp. 391–399.
14. Ivanov S., 2005. Population trends, employment and labour migration in the European Union. XXV International Population Conference, Tours, July 18–23, 2005, International Union for the Scientific Study of Population.
15. Jackson J.A., 1986. Migration, London–New York: Longman.
16. Janicki W., 2009. Interviews with inhabitants of Leipzig conducted during research stay in Universität Leipzig, 22–28 November 2009, unpublished.
17. Kicinger A., 2005. Polityka emigracyjna II Rzeczpospolitej, Central European Forum for Migration Research Working Paper no. 4.
18. Koryś I., 2003. Migration trends in selected EU applicant countries: Poland, Central European Forum for Migration Research Working Paper 5/2003.
19. Kunzig R., 2011. 7 billion, National Geographic, Special Series, January 2011, http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/01/seven-billion/kunzig-text [6 November 2015].
20. Meadows D.H., Meadows D.L., Randers J. 1992. Beyond the Limits: Confronting Global Collapse, Envisioning a Sustainable Future, Vermount: Chelsea Green Publishing Company, White River Junction.
21. Meadows D.H., Meadows D.L., Randers J., Behrens W. W., 1972. The limits to growth, Universe Books.
22. Meyerson F.A.B., 2001. Replacement Migration: A Questionable Tactic for Delaying the Inevitable Effects of Fertility Transition, Population and Environment: A Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, vol. 22, no. 4, pp. 401–409.
23. Prskawetz A., Fent T., 2004. Workforce Ageing and Economic Productivity: The Role of Supply and Demand of Labour. An Application to Austria [typescript].
24. Replacement Migration: Is it A Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations? 2000. Population Division, United Nations.
25. Riemann F., 2005. Oblicza lęku. Wydawnictwo WAM.
26. Saczuk K., 2005. A development and critique of the concept of replacement migration, Central European Forum for Migration Research Working Paper 4/2003.
27. Skeldon R., 2003. Interlinkages between internal and international migration and development in the Asian region, Bangkok: Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific.
28. White P., 2006. Migrant Populations Approaching Old Age: Prospects in Europe, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, vol. 32, no. 8, pp. 1283–1300.
https://doi.org/10.1080/13691830600927708 -
29. Żółciak T., 2012. Demograficzna bomba tyka. Zniknie 500 gmin, 70 powiatów i dwa województwa, http://forsal.pl/artykuly/619410,demograficzna_bomba_tyka_zniknie_500_gmin_70_powiatow_i_dwa_wojewodztwa.html [6 November 2015].