Gądek, Bogdan
;
Grabiec, Mariusz
;
Rączkowska, Zofia
;
Maciata, Andrzej
Geographia Polonica Vol. 89 No. 1 (2016)
In order to recognise the variability of the snow avalanche danger in the Tatra Mountains, the danger levels on consecutive days with snow cover over the last nine decades were calculated. To accomplish this task, the longest series of meteorological data were used from the Tatras along with an empirical method for determining the regional avalanche danger on the basis of elementary meteorological data. The results point to the fact that over the last 25 years the number of days with a level 2 avalanche danger significantly decreased, whereas the number of days with level 1 increased. This should result in a decreasing trend in the incidence of small and medium-sized natural avalanches. In the structure of snow cover, the percentage of melt forms might increase. However, this should not correlate with a significant increase in wet-snow avalanches, because the number of days with wet snow also reduces. The contemporary changes in the snow conditions and avalanche danger in the subalpine belt of the Tatras have been primarily associated with an increase in the air temperature (shorter winters and less snow).
1. Adamowski A., Wiśliński A., 2010. Próba wydzielenia typów płatów firnu i lodu w Tatrach Polskich [in:] A. Kotarba, Z. Mirek, Z. Krzan (eds.), Nauka a zarządzanie obszarem Tatr i ich otoczeniem: Materiały IV Konferencji Przyroda Tatrzańskiego Parku Narodowego a Człowiek, Zakopane 14-16 października 2010, Zakopane: Tatrzański Park Narodowy, pp. 11-13.
2. BALON J., JODŁOWSKI M., KRĄŻ P., 2015. Tatra Mountains – Topography [in:] Atlas of the Tatra Mountains. Abiotic Nature, sheet I.3, Zakopane: Tatrzański Park Narodowy.
3. BARTKOWSKI W., 2014. Początki skali zagrożenia lawinowego w Polsce. III Warsztaty Metod Badań Śniegu i Bezpieczeństwa Zimowego, 5-7 March 2014, Markowe Szczawiny [oral presentation].
4. Bartnicki L., Leszczycki S., 1934. Instrukcja o dokonywaniu spostrzeżeń meteorologicznych i śniegowych dla narciarskiego komunikatu śniegowego. Kraków: Towarzystwo Krzewienia Narciarstwa.
5. Brabec B., Meister R., 2001. A nearest-neighbor model for regional avalanche forecasting. Annals of Glaciology, vol. 32, no. 1, pp. 130-134.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/172756401781819247 -
6. Chun-Yu Z., Ying W., Xiao-Yu Z., Yan C., Yulian L., Da-Ming S., Hong-Min Y., Yu-Ying L., 2013. Changes in climatic factors and extreme climate events in northeast China during 1961-2010. Advances in Climate Change Research, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 92-102.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.092 -
7. Eckert N., Keylock C.J., Castebrunet H., Lavigne A., Naaim M., 2013. Temporal trends in avalanche activity in the French Alps and subregions: From occurrences and runout altitudes to unsteady return periods. Journal of Glaciology, vol. 59, no. 213, pp. 93-114.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/2013JoG12J091 -
8. EAWS, 2016. European Avalanches Warning Services. http://www.avalanches.org/ [15 January 2016].
9. Falarz M., 2001. Zmienność wieloletnia występowania pokrywy śnieżnej w polskich Tatrach. Folia Geographica. Series Geographia-Physica, 31-32, pp. 101-123.
10. Falarz M., 2002. Klimatyczne przyczyny zmian i wieloletniej zmienności występowania pokrywy śnieżnej w polskich Tatrach. Przegląd Geograficzny, vol. 74, no. 1, pp. 83-106.
11. Fierz C., Armstrong R.L., Durand Y., Etchevers P., Greene E., Mcclung D.M., Nishimura K., Satyawali P.K., Sokratov S.A., 2009. The international classification for seasonal snow on the ground. IHP-VII Technical Documents in Hydrology, 83, IACS Contribution, 1, Paris: UNESCO-IHP.
12. Gądek B., 2008. The problem of firn-ice patches in the Polish Tatras as an indicators of climatic fluctuations. Geographia Polonica, vol. 81, no. 1, pp. 10-25.
13. Gądek B., 2014. Climatic sensitivity of the nonglaciated mountains cryosphere (Tatra Mts., Poland and Slovakia). Global and Planetary Change, vol. 121, no. 2, pp. 1-8.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2014.07.001 -
14. Gądek B., Leszkiewicz J., 2012. Impact of climate warming on the ground surface temperature in the sporadic permafrost zone of the Tatra Mountains, Poland and Slovakia. Cold Regions Science and Technology, vol. 79-80, no. 2, pp. 75-83.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.coldregions.2012.03.006 -
15. GĄDEK B., SZYPUŁA B., 2015. Contemporary cryosphere [in:] Atlas of the Tatra Mountains. Abiotic Nature, sheet V.1, map 3, scale 1:250,000, Zakopane: Tatrzański Park Narodowy.
16. IPCC, 2013. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge-New York: Cambridge University Press.
17. Jania J., 1997. The problem of Holocene glacier and snow patches fluctuations in the Tatra Mountains: A short report [in:] B. Frenzel, G.S. Boulton, B. Glaser, U. Huchriede (eds.), Glacial fluctuations during the Holocene. Paläoklimaforschung 24, Stuttgart-Jena: Gustav Fischer, pp. 85-93.
18. Kaczka R.J., Lempa M., Czajka B., Janecka K., Rączkowska Z., Hreško J., Bugar G., 2015. The recent timberline changes in the Tatra Mountains: A case study of the Mengusovská Valley (Slovakia) and the Rybi Potok Valley (Poland). Geographia Polonica, vol. 88, no. 2, pp. 71-83.
http://dx.doi.org/10.7163/GPol.0016 -
19. Klimaszewski M., 1988. Rzeźba Tatr. Warszawa: Państwowe Wydawnictwo Naukowe.
20. Kłapowa M., 1968. Zagadnienie prognoz lawinowych w niektórych krajach. Biuletyn PIHM, 5-6, pp. 30-34.
21. Kłapowa M., 1989. Instrukcja prognozowania lawin śnieżnych w polskich Tatrach. Zakopane: Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej [manuscript].
22. Kotarba A., 1976. Współczesne modelowanie węglanowych stoków wysokogórskich: Na przykładzie Czerwonych Wierchów w Tatrach Zachodnich. Prace Geograficzne, 120 Wrocław-Warszawa: Zakład Narodowy imienia Ossolińskich, Instytut Geografii i Przestrzennego Zagospodarowania PAN.
23. Liston G.E., Sturm M., 1998. A snow-transport for complex terrain. Journal of Glaciology, vol. 44, no. 148, pp. 498-516.
24. López-Moreno J.I., 2005. Recent variations of snowpack depth in the Central Spanish Pyrenees. Artic, Antartic, and Alpine Research, vol. 37, no. 2, pp. 253-260.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1657/1523-0430(2005)037[0253:RVOSDI]2.0.CO;2 -
25. Lopez-Moreno J.I., Vicente-Serrano S.M., 2007. Atmospheric circulation influence on the interannual variability of snow pack in the Spanish Pyrenees during the second half of the 20th century. Nordic Hydrology, vol. 38, no. 1, pp. 33-44.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2007.030 -
26. MARASEK A., 2008. Statystyka wypadków lawinowych w latach 1996-2007. Fundacja Ratownictwa Tatrzańskiego TOPR, http://www.fundacja. topr.pl/site/54/statystyka-wypadkow-lawinowych-1996-2007.html [15 February 2016].
27. Martin E., Giraud G., Lejeune Y., Boudart G., 2001. Impact of a climate change on avalanche hazard. Annals of Glaciology, vol. 32, no. 1, pp. 163-167.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/172756401781819292 -
28. Mcclung D.M., Schaerer P., 2006. The Avalanche Handbook. Seattle: The Mountaineers Books.
29. RĄCZKOWSKI W., BOLTIŽIAR M., RĄCZKOWSKA Z., 2015. Relief [in:] Atlas of the Tatra Mountains. Abiotic Nature, sheet V.1, map 1, scale 1:100,000, Zakopane: Tatrzański Park Narodowy.
30. Schirmer M., Lehning M., Schweizer J., 2009. Statistical forecasting of regional avalanche danger using simulated snow-cover data. Journal of Glaciology, vol. 55, no. 193, pp. 761-768.
http://dx.doi.org/10.3189/002214309790152429 -
31. Schweizer J., Jamieson J.B., Schneebeli M., 2003. Snow avalanche formation. Reviews of Geophysics, vol. 41, no. 4, 25 pp.
32. Ustrnul Z., Walawender E., Czekierda D., Šťastný P., Lapin M., Mikulová K., 2015. Precipitation and snow cover [in:] Atlas of the Tatra Mountains, Abiotic Nature, sheet II.3, maps 1 and 5, 1: 250,000, Zakopane: Tatrzański Park Narodowy.
33. VAUGHAN D.G., COMISO J.C., ALLISON I., CARRASCO J., KASER G., KWOK R., MOTE P., MURRAY T., PAUL F., REN J., RIGNOT E., SOLOMINA O., STEFFEN K., ZHANG T., 2013. Observations: Cryosphere [in:] Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)], Cambridge-New York: University Press.
34. WINKLER K., 2015. Best practice in avalanche forecasting. Practice meets science. International Advanced Training Course on Snow and Avalanches, 23-27 February, Davos [oral presentation].
35. Wiśliński A., 1985. Lodowczyki otoczenia Morskiego Oka w Tatrach. Annales Universitatis Mariae Curie-Skłodowska, 40, pp. 55-76.
36. WSL, 2014. Avalanche Bulletins and other products: Interpretation Guide. Davos: WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF.
37. Zasadni J., Kłapyta P., 2009. An attempt to assess the modern and Little Ice Age climatic snowline altitude in the Tatra Mountains. Landform Analysis, 10, pp. 124-133.
38. Żmudzka E., 2011. Contemporary climate changes in the high mountain part of the Tatras. Miscellanea Geographica, 15, pp. 93-102.
http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10288-012-0005-6 -
39. ŻMUDZKA E., NEJEDLÍK P., MIKULOVÁ K., 2015. Temperature, thermal indices [in:] Atlas of the Tatra Mountains, Abiotic Nature, sheet II.2, map 1, scale 1: 250,000), Zakopane: Tatrzański Park Narodowy.
File size 3,9 MB ; application/pdf
oai:rcin.org.pl:58256 ; 0016-7282 ; 10.7163/GPol.0046
CBGiOS. IGiPZ PAN, call nos.: Cz.2085, Cz.2173, Cz.2406 ; click here to follow the link
Creative Commons Attribution BY-ND 3.0 PL license
Copyright-protected material. [CC BY-ND 3.0 PL] May be used within the scope specified in Creative Commons Attribution BY-ND 3.0 PL license, full text available at: ; -
Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization of the Polish Academy of Sciences
European Union. European Regional Development Fund ; Programme Innovative Economy, 2010-2014, Priority Axis 2. R&D infrastructure
Jun 25, 2024
Mar 29, 2016
1685
https://rcin.org.pl./publication/78448
Edition name | Date |
---|---|
Gądek B. i in. - Variability of the snow avalanche danger in the Tatra Mountains during the past nine decades | Jun 25, 2024 |
Lempa, Michał Kaczka, Ryszard J. Rączkowska, Zofia Janecka, Karolina
Spyt, Barbara Kaczka, Ryszard J. Lempa, Michał Rączkowska, Zofia
Kaczka, Ryszard J. Lempa, Michał Czajka, Barbara Janecka, Karolina Rączkowska, Zofia Hreško, Juraj Bugar, Gabriel
Boltižiar, Martin Biskupič, Marek Barka, Ivan
Kotarba, Adam (1938– ) Kłapa, Mieczysław Rączkowska, Zofia (1953– )
Gądek, Bogdan Kędzia, Stanisław
Rączkowska, Zofia Rojan, Elzbieta Długosz, Michał