Title:

Uncertainty and Dynamics under Kyoto Obligations

Subtitle:

Raport Badawczy = Research Report ; RB/65/2002

Creator:

Jęda, Waldemar Paweł ; Jonas, Matthias ; Nahorski, Zbigniew (1945– )

Publisher:

Instytut Badań Systemowych. Polska Akademia Nauk ; Systems Research Institute. Polish Academy of Sciences

Place of publishing:

Warszawa

Date issued/created:

2002

Description:

44 pages ; 21 cm ; Bibliography p. 35-36

Subject and Keywords:

Kyoto protocol ; Carbon emission trading ; Greenhouse gas inventory uncertainty ; Effective tradable permits ; Efektywne zezwolenia zbywalne ; Protokół z kioto

Abstract:

The paper addresses the problem of verification of the Kyoto obligations, raising the point, that verification of the obligations cannot be done, when uncertainty of the reported values is not taken into account. A verification method is considered, based on setting a risk of not satisfying obligations, which should lead to the easy to check conditions, with deterministic or stochastic setup. The solution proposed concentrates in replacing the reduction rate by a linear combination of the reduction and uncertainty, with the exact proportions related to the risk that the real emission has not satisfied the obligations. In addition to that, the influence of this idea to new rules of emission trading is mentioned and a method for empirical estimation of the standard deviation of the reported errors is proposed. The method based on smoothing splines, followed by a parametric model of the exponential growth is presented and the results of its application are discussed.

Relation:

Raport Badawczy = Research Report

Resource type:

Text

Detailed Resource Type:

Report

Source:

RB-2002-65

Language:

eng

Language of abstract:

eng

Rights:

Creative Commons Attribution BY 4.0 license

Terms of use:

Copyright-protected material. [CC BY 4.0] May be used within the scope specified in Creative Commons Attribution BY 4.0 license, full text available at: ; -

Digitizing institution:

Systems Research Institute of the Polish Academy of Sciences

Original in:

Library of Systems Research Institute PAS

Projects co-financed by:

Operational Program Digital Poland, 2014-2020, Measure 2.3: Digital accessibility and usefulness of public sector information; funds from the European Regional Development Fund and national co-financing from the state budget.

Access:

Open